Green Bay Packers, 9.5 wins: OVER

“This is almost like a hedge against Jordan Love. They bring back an offensive coach who is excellent, Jordan Love at the end of last year was clearly a notch better than Dak -- who people like, they return every tight end and receiver of note, they’ll be better defensively under Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, and they bring in Josh Jacobs. So, they’re young, they’re dynamic, the NFC is the weaker conference, and Jordan Love looked fantastic. This to me feels like a hedge against Jordan Love. I know that division is better, but it’s not THAT much better. Green Bay is probably still better than Chicago and much better than Minnesota. Take the OVER on the Packers 9.5.”

Dallas Cowboys, 10.5 wins: UNDER

“I can’t see the Cowboys winning 11 or 12 games, they’re due for some regression. They’ve won 12+ games in each of the last three seasons, and now they don’t have Tyron Smith, they don’t have much of a run game, they’re very CeeDee Lamb dependent, they weren’t very active in free agency, and I think the Eagles and Commanders will be better football teams. Dak is 8-18 in his career when he has to throw the ball 40 or more times. Well, if you don’t have a run game and the division is better, you’re going to be playing from behind on occasion. I think Dallas UNDER 10.5 is one of my favorite bets.”

Los Angeles Rams, 8.5 wins: OVER

“I did it last year with the Rams and I’ll do it again. If it’s a quarterback/coach/weapons league, the Rams are ‘A’ at all of them. I don’t get, last year they won ten games with the second-youngest roster in the league. And I don’t think Seattle is necessarily better. They match up well with the Niners right now. They addressed their defensive needs. Listen, Aaron Donald was really good, but the last two drafts they have addressed it very well. They had the most All-Rookie selections and did not have a first-round pick last year. It’s a really good scouting and drafting organization they have; they find gems everywhere. I think they have a chance to end up in the NFC Championship, 8.5 is criminally low.”

New York Jets, 9.5 wins: UNDER

"Their offensive line is either rookies or old guys. How many offensive linemen do they have in their prime that are excellent? One of them is always hurt, Alijah Vera-Tucker. They’re very dependent on one excellent running back, Saleh is a defensive coach, Aaron is a pretty prickly old quarterback with MAYBE one year left. I think he’s absolutely past his prime. Saleh is 18-33. Tell me the offensive linemen who are in their prime and elite? He’s a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury."

Minnesota Vikings, 6.5 wins: OVER

“Didn’t they win seven games last year with four quarterbacks?? I know the division is better, but Justin Jefferson is back and he missed seven games last year. I don’t think there’s a team in the league that’s better if you combine coach, tight end, two weapons, left tackle, and running back. They’re STACKED. Weaker conference, Justin Jefferson is back; they’ve won 7+ games the last two years, and last year did it with FOUR quarterbacks. You don’t even have to love Sam Darnold. You don’t even have to like him. If he’s upright they can’t go 7-10 with an excellent young coach? That seems bizarrely low.”

New Orleans Saints, 7.5 wins: UNDER

“Older quarterback, defensive coach, Dennis Allen has never proven he can win big games. The division is absolutely better. Atlanta is absolutely better, Tampa is better, Carolina should have a pulse. I think they finish fourth. They’re an aging roster on both sides of the ball, and didn’t do much in free agency like the Cowboys because they’re up against the cap.”

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